The seasonal cycles and photochemistry of C2–C5 alkanes at Mace Head

Continuous in-situ measurements of NMHCs at Mace Head, Ireland during two full annual cycles from January 2005 to January 2007 were used to investigate NMHC emission sources and transport including dilution and photochemical oxidation. The Mace Head research station is ideally located to sample a wide range of air masses including polluted European transport, clean North Atlantic and Arctic air masses and the ultra-clean, Southern Atlantic air masses. The variety in air mass sampling is used to investigate interaction of emissions, transport, dilution and photochemistry. Variability of long-lived hydrocarbon ratios is used to assess and estimate typical transport times from emission source to the Mace Head receptor. Seasonality in the ratios of isomeric alkane pairs (for butane and pentanes) are used to assess the effects of atmospheric transport and photochemical ageing. Finally, the natural logarithms of NMHC ratios are used to assess photochemical oxidation.     

Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.     

Modeling effects of traffic and landscape characteristics on ambient nitrogen dioxide levels in Connecticut

An integrated exposure model was developed that estimates nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) concentration at residences using geographic information systems (GIS) and variables derived within residential buffers representing traffic volume and landscape characteristics including land use, population density and elevation. Multiple measurements of NO(2) taken outside of 985 residences in Connecticut were used to develop the model. A second set of 120 outdoor NO(2) measurements as well as cross-validation were used to validate the model. The model suggests that approximately 67% of the variation in NO(2) levels can be explained by: traffic and land use primarily within 2 km of a residence; population density; elevation; and time of year. Potential benefits of this model for health effects research include improved spatial estimations of traffic-related pollutant exposure and reduced need for extensive pollutant measurements. The model, which could be calibrated and applied in areas other than Connecticut, has importance as a tool for exposure estimation in epidemiological studies of traffic-related air pollution.     

The drivers of risk to water security in Shanghai

Big cities are often said to have big water problems, and Shanghai is no exception. In this paper, we examine and compare the influence of the major factors that give rise to the risk of water insecurity in Shanghai. There is an extensive and diverse literature on these issues, dealt with in isolation, and here, we provide a synthesis of the literature, together with our own assessments and calculations, to assess what are the risks to Shanghai’s water supply and what is our degree of confidence in this assessment. We describe the systems that supply water to the city, and past and future changes in the systems, including changes in the glaciers that supply some water to the river, changes in climate, changes in land use, the construction of dams, and water diversions. We show how, at the same time as Shanghai is increasing its dependence on the Yangtze river, water diversions and sea level rise are increasing the risk that this water will be too saline to consume at certain times of the year. This analysis suggests that most of the major drivers of the risk to water security in Shanghai are within the power of environmental managers to control.     

A performance evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the summer of 2007

This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) that supported, in part, its transition into operational status. This evaluation focuses primarily on discrete forecasts for the maximum 8-h O₃ concentrations covering the 4-month period, June through September, 2007, using measurements obtained from EPA's AIRNow network. Results indicate that the 2007 NAQFC performed as well or better than previous configurations, despite the expansion of the forecast domain into the western half of the nation that is dominated by complex terrain. The mean, domain-wide, season-long correlation was 0.70. When examined over time, the domain-wide correlations exhibit a fairly consistent nature, with values exceeding 0.60 (0.70) over 90% (55%) of the days. The NAQFC systematically over-predicted the 8-h O₃ concentrations, continuing a trend established by earlier NAQFC configurations, though to a lesser degree. The summer-long mean forecast value of 53.2 ppb was 4.2 ppb higher than the observed value, resulting in a domain-wide Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) of 8.7%. Most of the over-prediction is associated with observed concentrations less than 50 ppb. In fact the model tends to under-predict when concentrations exceed 70 ppb. As with the bias, the error associated with the latest configuration was also lower. The summer-long Root Mean Square Error of 13.0 ppb (Normalized Mean Error (NME) = 20.4%) represented marked improvements over earlier forecasts. Examination of the spatial distribution of both the NMB and NME reveals that the NAQFC was generally within 25% for the NME and 25% for the NMB over a majority of the domain. Several areas of poorer performance, where the NMB and NME often exceed 25% and in some cases 50%, were noted. These areas include southern California, where the NAQFC tended to under-predict concentrations (especially on weekends) and the southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts regions, where the model over-predicted. Subsequent analysis revealed that the incorrect temporal allocation of precursor emissions was likely the source of the under-prediction in southern California, while inaccurate simulation of PBL heights likely contributed to the over-prediction in the coastal regions.     

Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.     

Analysis of 3-year observations of CFC-11, CFC-12 and CFC-113 from a semi-rural site in China

In-situ measurements of atmospheric chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) can be used to the assess their global and regional emissions and to check for compliance with phase-out schedules under Montreal protocol and its amendments. The atmospheric mixing ratios of CFC-11 (CCl₃F), CFC-12 (CCl₂F₂) and CFC-113 (CCl₂F–CClF₂) have been measured by an automated in-situ GC-ECDs system at the regional Chinese Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) station Shangdianzi (SDZ), from November 2006 to October 2009. The time series for these three principal CFCs showed large episodic events and background conditions occurred for approximately 30% (CFC-11), 52% (CFC-12) and 56% (CFC-113) of the measurements. The mean background mixing ratios for CFC-11, CFC-12 and CFC-113 were 244.8 ppt (parts per trillion, 10^?12, molar) 539.6 ppt and 76.8 ppt, respectively, for 2006–2009. The enhanced CFC mixing ratios compared to AGAGE sites such as Trinidad Head (THD), US and Mace Head (MHD), Ireland suggest regional influences even during background conditions at SDZ, which is much closer to highly-populated areas. Between 2006 and 2009 background CFCs exhibited downward trends at rates of ?2.0 ppt yr^?1 for CFC-11, ?2.5 ppt yr^?1 for CFC-12 and ?0.7 ppt yr^?1 for CFC-113. De-trended 3-year average background seasonal cycles displayed small fluctuations with peak-to-trough amplitudes of 1.0 ± 0.02 ppt (0.4%) for background CFC-11, 1.3 ± 2.1 ppt (0.3%) for CFC-12 and 0.2 ± 0.4 ppt (0.3%) for CFC-113. On the other hand, during pollution periods these CFCs showed much larger seasonal cycles of 11.2 ± 10.7 ppt (5%) for CFC-11, 7.5 ± 6.5 ppt (2%) for CFC-12 and 1.0 ± 1.2 ppt (1.2%) for CFC-113, with apparent winter minima and early summer maxima. This enhancement was attributed to prevailing wind directions from urban regions in summer and to enhanced anthropogenic sources during the warm season. In general, horizontal winds from northeast showed negative contribution to atmospheric CFCs loading, whereas South Western advection (urban sector: Beijing) had positive contributions.     

The Use of Subbottom Profiling in Refining Dredge Cuts for a Large‐Scale Sediment Remediation Project

A number of different techniques were employed to locate the target dredge grade on a large‐scale Canadian sediment remediation project. These techniques included various coring events, Seabed Terminal Impact Newton Gradiometer (STING) testing, and geotechnical borings. Despite these techniques, the data set for interpolation of the dredge grade was widely spaced, and some of the investigations were not specifically intended to be used for defining the dredge grade. In order to reduce the risk of extra expenses from contractor claims resulting from differing sediment conditions, more precise planning was required. Due to the size of the area and the desired accuracy, subbottom profiling was identified as a potential tool to provide high‐density coverage across the site. As with any geophysical tool, ground truth data were required to verify and aid in interpretation. This article describes how subbottom profiling was used to refine the dredge grade for the target layer, the associated challenges related to signal loss in some areas, and how they were overcome. ©2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Herbicide residues in grapes and wine

Abstract

The persistence of several common herbicides from grapes to wine has been studied. Shiraz, Tarrango and Doradillo grapes were separately sprayed with either norflurazon, oxyfluorfen, oxadiazon or trifluralin ‐ persistent herbicides commonly used for weed control in vineyards. The dissipation of the herbicides from the grapes was followed for 28 days following treatment. Results showed that norflurazon was the most persist herbicide although there were detectable residues of all the herbicides on both red and white grapes at the end of the study period. The penetration of herbicides into the flesh of the grapes was found to be significantly greater for white grapes than for red grapes. Small‐lot winemaking experiments showed that norflurazon persisted at levels close to the initial concentration through vinification and into the finished wine. The other herbicides degraded, essentially via first‐order kinetics, within the period of “ first fermentation”; and had largely disappeared after 28 days. The use of charcoal together with filter pads, or with diatomaceous earth was shown to be very effective in removing herbicide residues from the wine. A 5% charcoal filter removed more than 96% of the norflurazon persisting in the treated wine.     

Relationship between Sulfate Aerosol and Visibility

A PM₁₀ monitoring network was established throughout the South Coast Air Basin (SOCAB) in the greater Los Angeles region during the calendar year 1986. Annual average PM₁₀ mass concentrations within the Los Angeles metropolitan area ranged from 47.0 µg m^-3 along the coast to 87.4 µg m^-3 at Rubldoux, the furthest inland monitoring station. Measurements made at San Nicolas Island suggest that regional background aerosol contributes between 28 to 44 percent of the PM₁₀ aerosol at monitoring sites In the SOCAB over the long term average. Five major aerosol components (carbonaceous material, NO^- ₃, SO⁼ ₄, NH⁺ ₄, and soil-related material) account for greater than 80 percent of the annual average PM₁₀ mass at all on-land monitoring stations. Peak 24-h average mass concentrations of nearly 300 µg m^-3 were observed at inland locations, with lower peak values (?130–150 µg m^-3) measured along the coast. Peak-day aerosol composition was characterized by increased NO^- ₃ Ion and associated ammonium ion levels, as compared to the annual average. There appears to be only a weak dependence of PM₁₀ mass concentration on season of the year. This lack of a pronounced seasonal dependence results from the complex and contradictory seasonal variations in the major chemical components (carbonaceous material, nitrate, sulfate, ammonium ion and crustal material). At most sites within the Los Angeles metropolitan area, PM₁₀ mass concentrations exceeded both the annual and 24-h average federal and state of California PM₁₀ regulatory standards.